Forecast markets

What are your shares in sales?

The stock market demonstrates how it works: Supply and demand dictate the price. But can the forces which apply to stock exchange be applied to demand forecasts? Could it be possible to produce much more in syncronism with the market?

Even in the age of pull systems, demand forecasts are an important factor. There are usually two sources of such forecasts: You either analyse historical data to prdict future demands or you take the sales department’s estimation of market behaviour. There are plenty of reasons, however, why the sales estimations lead to inferior results compared to those gained from historical data. But these results also strongly depend on how well the forecasting methods are optimised. Suitable historical data is in some cases not available – what are the alternatives then?

One solution would be a forecast market which shows the needs and demands in many branches in real time. Prof. Dr. Götz-Andreas Kemmner shows you the current state of such markets in his professional article.

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